Monday, 14 December 2015

A few macro thoughts today


A few macro thoughts today...

US Fed week - ‘The ECB’s chief economist has signalled Eurozone policymakers stand ready to act, should rate increase in the US trigger a rise in global borrowing costs…”we are going to see what happens and we are ready to face any situation there”, Peter Praet, the ECB chief economist said’ (FT).  Big week for much more than just US monetary policy as I discussed in the latest Financial Orbit Speaks as you can read at the tab above. 

Talking about the US rate rise I liked this via @TheStalwart:


French regional elections – seven regions for centre right, none for Front National: Marine Le Pen’s party defeated by tactical voting and an increase in turnout after record showing in first round  (link here).    

Elsewhere in Europe, one good news story and one poor one indicating the still decidedly mixed backdrop for the single European currency zone...

Greece - has accomplished more than half of the reforms agreed with euro zone creditors to get the next, 1 billion-euro tranche of bailout loans and is to legislate the remaining steps on Tuesday, a senior euro zone official said on Sunday.  Euro zone creditors have made the payout of the next tranche of loans to Athens conditional on Greece adopting a set of 13 reforms and progress was discussed at a meeting of euro zone deputy finance ministers on Friday as noted in this article here

Banks - According to Portuguese media reports, Banif (Banco Internacional do Funchal) has become insolvent and will go out of business. The Portuguese government, which owns 60% of Banif, has assured full protection of depositors and taxpayers. Depositors, even if they have values above €100,000, will be “safeguarded” government sources reported.  

Meanwhile over the English Channel:

UK business confidence – the most recent Boardroom Bellweather survey (conducted x2 a year) shows only 28% of FTSE 350 company secretaries said they expected an improvement in the global economy in 2016 vs 57% at the time of the last survey in June. 

Interesting to see too this comment about UK pension schemes:


Asia – outside of shabby markets and a bit more pressure on the yuan...

Japan - BoJ Tankan Survey (Q4):
-Large All Industry Capex: 10.8% (exp 10.2% prev 10.9%)

“The Tankan results seem broadly in line with our expectations that any additional easing move by the BoJ would be delayed, at least, until next spring,” said Credit Suisse analysts Hiromichi Shirakawa and Takashi Shiono (quoted by @FastFT).  Am not sure if I would be so charitable.  Still does not look great to me...


Australian stock market at big levels multi-year chart.  Nice chart via @JuliaLeeAU



Today's penultimate chart: US corporates vs EM countries -

(h/t @panthera_s)

And finally...Football manager duration – amazing, basically nowadays 1+ year…



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