Monday, 28 December 2015

A few macro stories today

A few macro stories today...

Unsurprisingly not too many compelling stories today - I covered many of the immediate post Christmas stories in yesterday's Stories to be thinking about (link here).  Here are a few extra stories however:

Christmas sales ‘Christmas Day the most lucrative ever for online shopping, then consumers hit the high street and boosted sales on Boxing Day and Sunday’ (link here).  My perception however remains that - at least in the UK - it was not a great retail period overall.  

Meanwhile what is the greatest fear/risk about the UK for 2016?  Well that would be Brexit...


Portugal – minority centre left government needed the abstention of the centre-right opposition after his far left coalition allies rejected plans to use taxpayer money to undertaken a £2.2bn bailout for Banif

China – big falls in Chinese shares today. Why? First mainland B Share trading is T+3, so year-end liquidity squeeze comes in today (h/t @simongting for this observation). Second, industrial profits slipped to 672.1 billion yuan ($103.8 billion) in November from year-earlier levels, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website Sunday. Profit for state-owned enterprises tumbled 9.5% in the first 11 months, according to a statement on the Ministry of Finance’s website.  I am not over-interpreting this and remain a supporter of the 'the rise of the Chinese consumer' as one of the biggest global investment themes again in 2016.  

Still, there are charts like this circulating showing what the average financial commentator is worried about (link here): 

And of course it is not just China: 

 One of the key matters to watch out for this week:


(h/t @Callum_Thomas, @JLyonsFundMgmt)

And finally...ho, ho: 

 (h/t @LindaRegber)

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