Tuesday, 15 December 2015

3M: nibbles down FY15e, shares plunge. Why?

The last time I wrote up the US bellweather 3M was back in July when I noted:


I think the issue with 3M is just pure valuation.  Near x15s EV/ebit is a little full given the range of other good industrial-centric conglomerates out there...Something closer to the one year low is a bit more interesting for this nevertheless quality company. 

After today's outlook meeting...just maybe we are getting closer to this point:


Why so?  Well in an environment described as 'positive but soft' the company nibbled down their FY15 guidance...


...even if they hope that FY16e would see either side of a 10% EPS year-on-year progression...

...plus generally organic growth (albeit it low single digit - EMEA being a notable exception no doubt influenced by a still disadvantageous US dollar)...


...and continued hope of growing the dividend (which now is moving towards a 3% yield).

So fair dues for the biggest multi-year daily fall in the stock price?  Well such is the way it happens when - as noted above - a stock is firmly valued.  I have a flag below a share price of US$140.  

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