Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Some macro thoughts today...

A few early macro thoughts today...

Greece – mixed messages coming out of the Greek finance minister. Said that ‘Greek bank recapitalisation going well…process much better than a month ago’ but calls for 15-20 year period of grace on its government debts and the Telegraph is running this story: 

‘Greek debt deal would encourage mass write-off calls in Spain, claims finance minister
Euclid Tsakalotos claims lenders have delayed debt relief talks for fear of emboldening anti-austerity movements in the Mediterranean’ (link here).  

Diplomacy – re the role of Britain and opt outs etc., over the next month there will be ’27 confessionals (where) the team of Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, chairs meetings with individual EU members to explore their position and establish red lines’. Some early thoughts here.  

China consumer fest - It's Singles Day or double 11 day in China the biggest cyber-shopping event of the year.  How big?  Well, Alibaba's TMall online sales reached 10 bln RMB in 12 mins 28 seconds in Bachelor's Day. It took 38 mins last year. Alibaba's TMall online sales exceeds the entire US 2014 Thanksgiving sales in 7hr 45min 42sec !!!! 11 hours in, Alibaba's Singles' Day sales has passed the 55 billion yuan ($8.65B) mark. Last year's 24-hour record was $9B. Read about the history of this day here

Postscript - China data out, looks relatively inline:

China FAI (YoY) YtD Oct: 10.2% (exp 10.2% prev 10.3%)
China Industrial Production (YoY) Oct: 5.6% (exp 5.8% prev 5.7%)
China Industrial Production (YoY) YtD Oct: 6.1% (exp 6.2% prev 6.2%)
China Retail Sales (YoY) Oct: 11.0% (exp 10.9% prev 10.9%)

China Retail Sales (YoY) YtD Oct: 10.6% (exp 10.6% prev 10.6%)

Oil market – following on from the IEA disclosures yesterday, production from the US and other countries outside of the Opec cartel will decline next year for the first time since 2008, the US government said on Tuesday. Non-Opec output is expected to grow by 1.1m barrels a day in 2015, but will fall by 300,000 in 2016 in what would be the first annual decline in eight years, according to the US energy department's statistics arm.  Oil price slightly firmer this morning.

Meanwhile as I noted on Twitter earlier this morning:

Of course the really interesting aspect is the anticipated fall in demand by the EU and especially the US

Recently stronger US dollar consequences -


(h/t @eurofaultlines)

And versus pensions.  No surprises that respondents have extrapolated the strong performance of property into the future...

...and look at poor old 'investing in the stock market'!

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