Monday, 23 November 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 23/11/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. That Europe still has challenges is wonderfully shown by the below chart which contrasts Europe vs US on cyclicals vs defensives –


So what should Europe do - loosen policy again?  Well as per this report  'Monetary policy risks becoming ineffective in low growth world as per the ECB’s Coeure'.  Which of course is why they are planning QE2!  Meanwhile the euro down to low 1.06s against the US dollar...  

2. Commodities – some further weakness earlier today GMT morning ‘copper sinks to below the USD 4500/ton level for the first time since 2009’ but this article in particular caught my eye and is worth reading: “A depeg of the Saudi riyal is our number one black-swan event for the global oil market in 2016, a highly unlikely but highly impactful risk,"   

BUT then tweets noting that Saudi were committing to something rallied the oil market:

Change anything?  Well as I observed on Twitter: 

The answer is not really...but in a super low sentiment market it causes a bit of short covering etc.

Still, oil shares came off their lows...


3. PMI day was not particularly exciting - as it contained only some reports out of Continental Europe and the US.  In the former I observed that:

Yawn - “PMI data available for Q4 so far point to further modest, albeit unspectacular growth, of German economy.”


Meanwhile in the US the stronger US dollar (the trade-weighted DXY index not quite back through that 100.0 index level, currently 99.8 as I write!) has its impact with the observation that:

Headline PMI drops to its weakest for 25 months, reversing the rise seen in October


4. In some stock research today I wrote up here Tyson Foods noting:

Impressive quarter and guidance from Tyson Foods...not that I still own the stock!


5. In other matters...the Allergan/Pfizer merger hits the wires.  Both shares down c. 2% as I write.  Tax inversion rumour versus reality...


Otherwise, impossible not to learn something from this link and I note this story from Fast FT titled:

Russian stocks soar to highest level since 2008


And make the observation: 

Probably not a headline most people expected to see in '15 "Russian stocks soar to highest level since 2008

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