Thursday, 19 November 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 19/11/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. Japan - In Thursday's statement, the BoJ said the economy "has continued to recover moderately, although exports and production have been affected by the slowdown in emerging economies."
They also noted they will continue QQE Until Stable 2% Inflation Maintained but that easing Is Exerting Intended Effects

Japan still feels highly likely to increase QE to me... Ironically opening up to more Chinese tourists helps...(and other liberalisation/supply side reforms): 

2. Talking about China - The MNI China Business Indicator fell 10.3 per cent this month, to 49.9 - just below the 50 threshold needed to indicate optimism. The forward looking New Orders component fell by 6.6 per cent, while the Production component fell 4.2 per cent (via Fast FT).  Volatile...

Of course maybe the solution - consistent with the Japan observation above - is more Chinese spending.  Certainly whilst debt has gone up this has been predominately in the corporate and government areas not consumers.  

3. I write about Poundland here which had a bit of a shocker 

4. As I noted on Twitter:

Yes: the critical Fed insight. Mini hike in Dec irrelevant, lack of cumulative forward hikes the key/different world

5. Good set of graphs/stats in this report "US household debt creeps back towards peak" (link here)

Hmm. The whole link is worth a read.

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