Monday, 9 November 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 09/11/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. UK surveys – CBI downgrades its anticipated UK growth level 2015-16 whilst a Markit survey found business confidence at a near 3 year low! The survey cited a strong pound and uncertainty over EU membership having a negative impact (link here).

Meanwhile the equivalent global survey noted ‘global expectations regarding future business activity and corporate profits hit new post-crisis lows’ as the UK retained its most confident country position! (link here). 

More of this needed?


2. I write two articles on ShareProphets, the first highlighting the perceived value below 4000p a share in Randgold (link here)...

3. ...the second article reflecting an update on BHP Billiton whose share price has fallen below 1000p a share again after a catastrophic tailings dam flood at a Brazilian mine they co-own/operate (link here). 

4. So what are my favourite OECD Economic Outlook charts from the big half-yearly report released today?  Surely there must be something of interest given @livesquawk summarised the numbers as:

OECD: 2015 Global Economic Growth Fcast Cut To 2.9% (Prev 3.0%), 2016 Cut To 3.3% (Prev 3.6%)

China slowdown not helpful for global trade...but the real negative impact comes when commodities are aggressively thrown into the mix too...



R-r-recession risk from poor trade progress based on historical empirical analysis. Shows again that China is so important for setting the tone for the global economy today: 



You can see more of my favourite charts here.  

5. And finally, interesting news on one of my larger current holdings as I noted here:

In my opinion, the big news today has been Apache whose Q3 numbers I wrote up late last week (link here) and who has been subject to an unsolicited bid approach (turned down) in the last little while.  My view at present is that you hold onto the shares we should open above US$50 (still another 50% to go until the 52 week high taken out!) as the chances of a second /revised bid must be reasonable.


I also wonder who the bidder is...(rumours say Exxon).  


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