Friday, 6 November 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 05/11/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. Optimism – “I'll eat my hat if we are anywhere near a global recession. The fiscal spigot is opening in the US, China and Europe, and the world's money growth is near a 25-year high”.  Fascinating piece with a couple of excellent and thought-provoking charts...including this one:

The key is watching the velocity of money in my view.  If that picks up then hello inflation and everything changes... 

2. I write up the numbers on Randgold Resources (link here) which included this chart on the problems in the gold industry. This is the deep value differential in the Randgold story: sustainable, growing, high grade production at a low cash cost and properly rationalised at US$1,000/ounce gold:

3. I also appraise the Apache numbers (link here) with the observation that:

'Fundamentally it is not easy to value oil companies today - especially the non-heavy dividend yielding ones like Apache (2% yield) - but I like the company's skill in raising production and (in previous quarters) selling assets - which is why I stay long the stock anticipating further recovery in its share price (undoubtedly influenced by the direction of the oil price - which I feel is bottoming)'

4. In other numbers today, Adecco shares look quite interesting as I recount here after their fall today. 

5. Finally, in European economic data today I observed on Twitter: 

The Autumn 2015 EC forecast... will get many of the headlines but continued sub-trend growth the reality

I talked on Newshour on the BBC World Service about all of this. You can hear my thoughts here from about the 38.30 mark.  

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