Tuesday, 3 November 2015

A few macro thoughts today

A few macro thoughts today...on another busy earnings season day. 

ECB ‘some of the ECB’s top decision makers met bankers and asset managers days before significant policy decisions and, one occasion, just hours before, copies of their diaries reveal’ (FT).  So when they said they would do anything…seems they meant it.  Bank of England, amongst others, has much tougher meeting rules.

UK/Europe – UK Chancellor will set out UK demands for EU treaty change to ‘protect its economy, taxpayers and the City of London…will signal that Britain will not stand in the way if the 19 member Eurozone decides to press ahead with closer integration’ (link here). 

US markets/interest rates – yesterday post the US ISM data odds on higher US interest rates in December climbed to 50 per cent, according to calculations on federal funds futures by the CME Group. Meanwhile the Nasdaq 100 index climbed on Monday to the highest level since the peaks of the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the S&P just hit Goldman Sach's initial year-end target (2,100) before they threw in the towel on it back during the September volatility. Hmm!

Asia – Japan closed for Culture Day.  Australia’s central bank held rates and noted ‘overall conditions are still quite accommodative’. Meanwhile in China commodity sector insights rebar, coke futures in new contract lows

A couple of interesting Asia charts.  First...still outflows from China (although I note this has not stopped the yuan having a strong last few days)...

...and meanwhile the complex inter-relationship between Japan, China, South Korea and the US:

Global GDP trends – pretty clear still challenges out there! 


Unicorns –to say the least crowded!  New phrase needed...

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