Tuesday, 24 November 2015

A few macro thoughts and charts today

A few macro thoughts and charts today...

Security - late on Monday, the US state department issued a global travel alert, citing "increased terrorist threats" from militant groups in various regions around the world.  Euro still in lower 1.06s and DXY still flirting with that 100 level...

Portugal – the country’s President has insisted on guarantees that a government supported by the political left will comply with EU rules and ‘ensure financial stability’ before agreeing to appoint a Prime Minister to create ‘a stable, lasting and credible government’

Brexit - More than half of the public now want to leave the European Union, according to an opinion poll for The Independent – the first time the monthly survey has shown a majority for “Brexit.” (link here). The survey of 2,000 people by ORB, conducted last Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks, will be seen as a reflection of public anxiety about the EU’s migration crisis.

Asia – manufacturing flash PMI in Japan for November came in at 52.8, the highest reading since March 2014, when it was 53.9.  Helped by new exports rising (helped by the weak yen).

Without any 'flash' data from China anymore it is interesting that the headline SMI is flattish...

(h/t @Callum_thomas)

Also on China I found this report fascinating...could we see a weaker yuan to help out as well as lower Chinese interest rates and general stimulus...but all that is going to do is pile more pressure on the US dollar/US economy...

Meanwhile recall that a head of a Chinese brokerage could not be contacted – well Bloomberg note that 12 heads of private equity firms could also not be contacted.

US earnings season – more –ve earnings growth sectors than growing ones.  Hmm, remember that dollar trade weighted chart above (and the Chinese yuan prospective comment)?

LBO  transactions multiples - very high versus history and no doubt a function of very low interest rates. 

(via @eurofaultlines)

Global M&A - buoyed by Pfizer/Allergan of course and low interest rates.  

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