Thursday, 5 November 2015

A few macro stories today...

A few macro stories today...

Optimism “I'll eat my hat if we are anywhere near a global recession. The fiscal spigot is opening in the US, China and Europe, and the world's money growth is near a 25-year high”.  Fascinating piece with a couple of excellent and thought-provoking charts...including this one: 

The key is watching the velocity of money in my view.  If that picks up then hello inflation and everything changes... 


Europe – ‘the Eurozone needs an independent committee to ensure that members stick to its fiscal rules, the head of the bloc’s finance minister has urged’ (FT)  Yet another committee…



UK power – correctly front page news that UK power prices rose to over £2k per MWh at one point yesterday versus the usual c. £60.  When margin over capacity gets below 5% you always have to worry/watch.   Chart below via today's FT: 




China – back to bull market territory, Shanghai Composite technically returned to "bull market" status as it rose more than 2 per cent on Thursday, taking its gain since a 2015 low in late August to more than 20 per cent.  Of course 30% down from highs still.  Apparently I hear that “A-Share rally amid news/rumour/hot gossip that PPT may end up using 10 trln RMB to support market!!” (via @simonTing)


Wonderful Panda chasing money picture via @HaidiLun! 


Super Thursday at the Bank of Englandhere’s what toexpect from the data dump

Sentiment – bull/bear rebuilding from Institutional Investor


(h/t @Callum_Thomas)

Active management – surprised the numbers in the US look this bad, feel active managers have done better recently.  Still believe it is an active market...

No comments:

Post a Comment