Thursday, 26 November 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

First, Happy Thanksgiving to all US readers.  Hope the turkey is good...it certainly is likely to be bigger:  


Moving onto today's macro observations,,,

UK Autumn Statement – “The government's fiscal watchdog gave chancellor George Osborne a huge boost yesterday, allowing him to escape the tax credits fiasco without it getting in the way of his plans to cut borrowing”.  Nice summary analysis of where the extra up to £53bn for the UK budget was found. 

Talking about no austerity...

2016 EU budget - The European Union approved a 1.8% increase in spending next year. The European Parliament voted on Wednesday in Strasbourg, France, for an EU 2016 budget of 143.9 billion euros ($153.6 billion) compared with 141.3 billion euros this year. The new spending plan more than doubles funding for migration-related measures within the EU to 1.53 billion euros from 658 million euros in 2015 (Bloomberg).

Other European stuff – 7 year German sovereign bonds now –ve yield!  Hmmm...


Indicative of course on low relative growth even to the UK: 


(h/t @eurofaultlines) 

Diplomacy/geopolitics - François Hollande visits Vladimir Putin. The French president is going to Moscow for the same reason he went to Washington earlier this week: to discuss the fight against ISIL.  On a related point, thought this was a fascinating survey: 


Asia – in generally positive Asian markets the Aussie dollar fell as Australian capex contracted in the September quarter by a seasonally adjusted 9.2%. That was a record drop, and more than triple the 2.9% decline expected by economists. It was the biggest quarterly drop in data going back to 1987.


Meanwhile Happy 25th Birthday to the Shanghai Stock Exchange! Since its birth SHCOMP has gained 3,483% (S&P500 532%, MSCI EM 348%).


(h/t @HaidiLun)

Not going to be a boring December!


 (h/t @fwred)

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