Monday, 9 November 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

Huge amount of interesting charts and data today...only time for a few.

Oil – Saudi in ‘no mood to shift tack ahead of Opec’s December 4 meeting’.  Interesting to note that Dubai stocks entered a bear market on Saturday whilst the Saudi index fell to the lowest level seen since January 2013 

UK surveys – CBI downgrades its anticipated UK growth level 2015-16 whilst a Markit survey found business confidence at a near 3 year low! The survey cited a strong pound and uncertainty over EU membership having a negative impact (link here).

Meanwhile the equivalent global survey noted ‘global expectations regarding future business activity and corporate profits hit new post-crisis lows’ as the UK retained its most confident country position! (link here). 

More of this needed?

Portugal – ‘an unprecedented alliance between Portugal’s opposition Socialists (PS) and the far left is poised to bring down the country’s two-week-old centre-right government this week and replace it with an anti-austerity administration’ (FT).  Interesting development…

Asia - Chinese and Japanese equities each jumped to 11-weeks high.  Hopes for more Chinese stimulus after weak weekend trade data whilst in Japan a falling yen also provides stimulus hopes.  In other news interesting to see that Goldman Sachs have announced the closure of their BRIC fund…

Wall Street bonuses -
Wall Street paychecks are expected to drop for the first time in four years as financial firms reel from a choppy 2015, according to a closely watched survey from consulting firm Johnson Associates Inc.

But US economic surprise index better...

However a cautious signal from the S&P vs junk bond market indicator– 

(h/t @Callum_thomas)

Is this the way it is going to go?

S&P vs 2011- fascinating via @ryandetrick

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