Sunday, 11 October 2015

Stories we should be thinking about

A few finance and related stories we need to be thinking about before Monday morning:


Macro matters:

Seeking Alpha noted that 'U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are still likely to raise interest rates this year but that is "an expectation, not a commitment", Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said at an IMF meeting in Peru."Considerable uncertainties" still surround the U.S. economic outlook, including the drag on exports from slowing global growth, low investment caused by the decline in oil prices and the recent "disappointing" drop in U.S. jobs' 

Meanwhile in another eyebrow raising central banking comment, Mario Draghi perceives that ECB policy has been a raging success...despite the rising inevitability of QE2 in Europe...

...meanwhile in Japan the need for more stimulus gets clearer and clearer...


(h/t @callum_thomas)

At least Japan is still leading the world in something (link here


Bond fund leverage: I am trying to work out whether I should be worried about this or not given whilst it is historically high, it has fallen back recently...


As always I remain a bit sceptical of the real insights from IMF meetings although their continued reduction of world trade volume estimates means something...


(h/t @steve_hanke)

...as does the reality that emerging markets (despite their bad press) are still growing faster than their advanced peers - although the differential between China/Asean and Brazil/Russia is higher than ever: 

Of course the next few weeks will include lots of very insightful data from China (link here). 

EU Refugee Crisis: Germany, European Commission In Talks To Impose New Tax To Aid Refugees, Report Says (link here)

Meanwhile re the financial markets I was struck by the sheer magnitude of the record (volatility) VIX decline over the last nine trading sessions...


...and just where the outperformance has come from: the worst performing stocks over the summer period:

Looks like the authoritarian incumbent will be the winner of the Belarus election (link here). 

Why you should probably wait to buy those large TVs for at least a few more weeks (link here)


Company-related observations:

This article is telling me to like dividends but love progressive dividends in the current market backdrop: 



Important for multinationals if the world really is going to apply this:

Further simplification at General Electric with chat that the company is 'in advanced talks to sell a specialty finance portfolio worth more than $30B to Wells Fargo'.  As Seeking Alpha notes 'The sale of the loans would leapfrog GE well past its target of shedding ~$100B worth of finance assets by year-end' which would be a serious achievement.  

A couple of stories from The Sunday Times which I tweeted out: 

Quelle surprise that @ST_Business talking about $BUD raising its bid (to £43-44 a share) for #SABMiller before the 5pm Wed deadline

When I read ' $RBS close to zombie loans deal' I thought they were selling more of their bad bank...but no, want £13bn worth Northern Rock loans


Busy upcoming earnings week as Bespoke Invest notes: 



And finally...


(h'/t @ValaAfshar)


Have a good week

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