Wednesday, 21 October 2015

Some macro thoughts today

A few macro thoughts today...

Brexit - CBI says leaving EU would have serious consequences for Britain. It says that if membership is worth about 4-5% of national income, this would mean £3,000 for each household on average (link here).  Got to agree with of the biggest fears at the moment is the declining level of world trade so anything which inhibits this...(remember this chart from last week's Financial Orbit Speaks?

Greece – the Greek press report that the Euroworking Group (EWG) postponed, since Athens has only completed 1/3 of the 49 prior actions.  Not very impressive.

Oil & investment flows - Saudis Risk Draining Financial Assets in Five Years, IMF Says (link here).  Unless the oil price bounces back could have negative implications on global investment flows (already been suggested that the Saudis have withdrawn c. $50bn from global markets).  

Talking about oil…

Asia – most striking overnight news probably another poor trade performance from Japan.  Japan Exports (YoY) Sep: 0.6% (exp 3.8% prev 3.1%), Japan Imports (YoY) Sep: -11.1% (exp -12.0% prev -3.1%). Japanese economy still struggling and more stimulus/lower yen seemingly likely.

Bonds - Britain’s new 50-year government bond drew record bids at its sale on Tuesday, buoyed by scarce supply of long-dated debt, subdued inflation and demand from pension funds (link here). 

Property prices around the world

(h/t @Callum_Thomas)

Xi UK visit – very good...

(h/t @HaidiLunCNA)

What ‘Back to the Future II’ got right about tech in 2015 (link here). Fascinating! 

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