Wednesday, 28 October 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 28/10/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. I liked this from the Bank of England 'Bank Underground' website on why world trade has been so weak:

Global growth is expected to remain weaker than prior to the crisis, due to weaker global potential supply growth (see the recent IMF WEO chapter for more information). Given the higher variance of trade growth relative to GDP growth, that will continue to weigh on the trade growth to GDP ratio.

The weight on EMEs, which have low trade elasticities, is expected to continue rising (albeit at a slower pace than the past given the slowdown in potential growth expected over the next few years), further depressing the global trade elasticity. That will continue to weigh on world trade growth.

The emerging market weight in trade growth above is striking...

2. Continuing the oil sector theme after yesterday's BP disclosures (link here), the Norwegian company Statoil came out with their Q3 thoughts.  Again the key is the balance sheet...and with the help of divestments Statoil did manage to pay their 5.5%+ dividend yield although of course cost cuts are continuing.  

As as investment I am not that excited about Statoil given I perceive it is recumbent to its key Norwegian government shareholder but what the numbers are telling me is that at least so far mega cap energy stocks are still hitting their dividend yields...and this is why I still think the space offers opportunities.  

Postscript: Benchmark US crude oil futures jumped more than 5.5 per cent after weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration showed gasoline and distillate stocks fell by more-than-expected last week

3. In US numbers today I still like Gilead and Agco at prevailing, regard Mondelez as a hold and am watching Hershey's closely re an opportunity to buy... (link here).

4. Some auto sector tweets I wrote during the day:

On the VW numbers:

conf call just starting...some useful charts in the presentation to put into context

from a sales perspective have not had a good 2015 to date only outperforming in North America and Central Europe

On the Ferrari numbers:

On the conf call. Shares now just below $52 IPO price. Sales split on the chart attached.

5. The Fed on interest rates - This via @IvanTheK made me laugh

So no change but a dumping euro (1.09!), reversal in the gold price and a US market that pushed up 1% odd.  All very strange.  Time to dust down the VIX again?

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