Saturday, 17 October 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 16/10/15 & 17/10/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 48 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. US numbers dichotomy – so Empire and Philly Fed economic surveys yday pretty shabby and US economic surprise indicator looks poor  but core inflation (ex food/energy) +1.9%, US jobless claims equal to the lowest level since ’73 and the budget deficit at 2.5% of GDP lowest since ’07.

Interesting chart below...QE yoy stimulus via the Fed balance sheet about (allowed?) to go negative?  Either shows comfortable with economy or QE4 imminent...

(blue line yoy, red line absolute)

(h/t @DonDraperClone)

US labour force participation stats also look warped too –

2. I wrote up lots of company research including thoughts on:

WD-40 - link here ("The price I would buy shares in the always impressive WD-40")

SKF - link here ("SKF tells you how it is out there")

General Electric - link here ("General Electric: simplification excellence")

Honeywell - link here ("One chart from Honeywell's presentation deck that really makes you think ")

3. The latest Financial Orbit Speaks is out:

Published on 16th October 2015link here
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks enhanced podcast by Chris Bailey reviews the latest macroeconomic news including some troubling data in the United States, a clear slowdown in global trade volumes and the improvement in the gold price.  Drawing on these insights five investment themes with relevance to this backdrop - along with relevant individual stock examples - are discussed.

4. A couple of charts I like...

First this one from Saturday's Financial Times which shows (I would argue) the attractiveness of the mining sector in the UK (recall that two of my bigger holdings currently are Randgold Resources and Billiton): 

5.  Second a wonderful indication of what how divergent growth rates can impact business confidence and hence a willingness for businesses to invest/leverage up: 

(h/t @eurofaultlines) 

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