Wednesday, 14 October 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 14/10/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. After listening to the JP Morgan conference call I concluded:

My gut feel - and for what it is worth they remain fairly optimistic about the US economy - a fall below a US$60 share price is a potential level to start accumulating the share.  The risks with the company - consistent with most banks - is macro and JPM is fairly well advanced on the self-help game. I can find European names (Barclays, RBS etc.) that have more natural self-help capabilities but for the first time in a while am building towards buying some JPM shares.

Just awaiting that clear fall below US$60/share. 

2. What US businesses worry about - always taxes but not sales so much now...


...in larger companies it is certainly the US dollar so far this third quarter earnings season: 


3. I write up the latest ASML numbers noting that:

Today's update from the company feels to me like a classic short-term versus long-term.  Longer-term the company is still very comfortable with multi-year targets like Euro10bn worth of revenues by 2020 (implied CAGR c. 8%+).  But, as the outlook chart in their presentation noted, corporate life is not the easiest as the moment reflecting corporate capex uncertainty:
4. A big financials day...thoughts on Wells Fargo, Bank of America and this on Blackrock:

A final financial to look at today: Blackrock.  Back in July I observed that 'from an active perspective note the improvement in the active equity performance and the deterioration in active fixed income performance.  The first sign of a long-awaited improvement?' and looking at this quarter's updated statistics...this trend continues.  As I tweeted out a little while ago:

Good see higher % active fundamental equity funds over 1 yr o/perf b'marks. Start re-rise active vs passive?

Here's hoping! 

(actually I strongly believe it - correlations recently too high / Q3 earnings season to show the value of differentiated company insights/capabilities).  

5. Finally...what a day for Wal-Mart on which I give a few thoughts on (link here). 
  • Shares of $WMT gyrate after comments from shareholders meeting; CFO says expects flat sales in FY16
  • $WMT saying FY17 EPS will fall 6-12% driven by increased spending on wages
  • Wal-Mart CFO: Sales now expected to be flat in fiscal 2016.
  • Wal-Mart CEO says investments in tech and people will continue to pressure earnings next year

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