Saturday, 3 October 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 02 & 03/10/15

A special Friday and Saturday combo wrap...

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 48 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. Remember the non farm payroll numbers yesterday?  The usual range of guesses and surprise when the number came out much weaker than hoped...although still above the 100k level which is apparently consistent with pushing down the unemployment rate...


...although the lowest participation rate since the mid 1970s always helps:


2.  So what does all this mean?  Well maybe quite reasonable to assume it is lower for longer for US interest rates.  Certainly the proportional likelihood of even a December hike has come crushing down. Also it is interesting to see where the jobs are being created.  Leisure/hospitality sounds a little lower pay whilst the stronger US dollar is clearly hurting manufacturing/mining employment amongst others: 


3. Why does this all matter?  Because the US consumer is so important still from a global demand perspective...

4. Still dangerous in my view for Europe and Japan to rely on weak FX rates.  Sure do more QE but please, please do some structural reform too...

 (h/t @adnanchian)

5. Finally, a reminder I published the latest Financial Orbit Speaks yesterday (Friday).

Published on 2nd October 2015 - link here

The latest global investment enhanced podcast by Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit Limited covers the latest economic data, poor sentiment but also opportunities for investors due to the high correlation of sectors and stocks plus the general pessimism of investors.

No comments:

Post a Comment