Friday, 23 October 2015

A few macro thoughts

A few quick macro thoughts as I am speaking here later today:


Markets – to give a feel for the magnitude of some of the moves yesterday, Thursday's 3.9% rally was the 2nd biggest gain seen in DAX futures  in the 813 sessions since Friday 3 August 2012 whilst the 1.8% fall was the biggest drop seen in EUR/USD since Thursday 22 September 2011, 1057 sessions earlier (both statistics via Predicted Markets). 

S&P moving back into oversold?


(h/t @bespokeinvest)


And in the QE ready-reckoner it suggests we are deep in the 'talk incessantly' mode...

 

(h/t @sobata416)


Portugal – despite attempts by centre-left coalition to form a govt President Cavaco Silva appoints centre-right leader Passos Coelho as PM, saying the latter finished ahead in general election.

Greece – with the dismissal of Greece’s top tax-collection official drawing criticism this is an interesting read on Greece generally 

Ukraine – in an interesting moment for Germany vs Russia relations, Angela Merkel will meet with Ukrainian prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk at an economic conference. Merkel has said Germany is ready to invest in Ukraine, but only if the country weeds out corruption and reduces the influence of its powerful oligarchs.

Asia – In September China national home prices rose in 39 out of 70 cities from the previous month, rising an average 0.3 per cent according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. This compares with 35 cities in August and 31 in July.  According to calculations by Reuters, new home prices in the 70 cities were down just 0.9 per cent year-on-year in September, versus -2.3 per cent in August and a -3.7 per cent decline in July (Fast FT)

Talking about China, services, services, services…




Meanwhile the Japan manufacturing PMI reading for October came in at 52.5, compared to expectations of 50.5. This was the highest reading since March 2014, when it was 53.9. 

Finally some impact from a weaker yen?

“growth in total new orders accelerated to the highest in over one-and-a-half years, underpinned
by a solid increase in international demand”


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