Friday, 16 October 2015

A few macro thoughts today

A few macro thoughts today...

European migrants - As per Chancellor Merkel of Germany a EUR 3 Bln Ballpark Figure Being Discussed For Turkish Aid On Migrants. Meanwhile the BBC note that ‘EU member states accepted Turkish demands for easier visa access and new talks on its accession to the EU, in return for Turkey stemming the flow of migrants to Europe. But the deal is only tentative, and how Turkey plans to implement its side of the bargain remains unclear’ (link here). 

EU reform – front page of the FT says that ‘David Cameron will issue a wishlist for EU reform at the beginning of next month…will trigger an intense 2 month push to renegotiate Britain’s membership terms’.  I would like to see supply side reform myself...

Meanwhile the rise of part-time jobs shows improvement in European supply side policies or just a weak economy?

(h/t @eurofaultlines)

Russia - Russia's economy may contract more than previously thought this year, and barely grow at all in 2016, amid a period of sustained low energy prices, Standard & Poor's reckon.  They now see Russia's gross domestic product falling 3.6 per cent in 2015, down from a previous forecast of 2.6 per cent. S&P also axed its estimate for 2016 growth down to just 0.3 per cent from 1.9 per cent (FT)

US numbers dichotomy – so Empire and Philly Fed economic surveys yday pretty shabby and US economic surprise indicator looks poor  but core inflation (ex food/energy) +1.9%, US jobless claims equal to the lowest level since ’73 and the budget deficit at 2.5% of GDP lowest since ’07. 

Interesting chart below...QE yoy stimulus via the Fed balance sheet about (allowed?) to go negative?  Either shows comfortable with economy or QE4 imminent...

(blue line yoy, red line absolute)

(h/t @DonDraperClone)

US labour force participation stats also look warped too –

Asia – quietly Shanghai stocks were up 5.5 per cent this week and on track for their best performance since the week ended August 14, while a 7.8 per cent rise for Shenzhen stocks was their best since June 5 (FT).  Meanwhile I liked this word count review of the Australian central bank’s October financial stability report: Bubble 0, Housing 21, Mortgage 23, Loan 33, Property 74 (stats via @linzcom)

China/Asia on a PPP basis also still the biggest contributor to global growth (read more on this here):

Global flows – interesting observation.  First decline in 12 years in this measure for the Philippines: 

(h/t @DavidInglesTV)

Gold – looking better, key technical etc.  I still like gold as a mixer asset...and I think all regular readers of Financial Orbit know how I feel about stocks like Randgold

No comments:

Post a Comment