Wednesday, 7 October 2015

A few macro thoughts today...

A few macro thoughts today...

Ukraine - Venezuela beat out war-torn Ukraine for the worst performer crown. The IMF is expecting the Ukrainian economy to contract 9 per cent this year. It's followed by Russia (-3.8 per cent), Belarus (-3.6 per cent); Brazil (-3 per cent) and Greece (-2.3 per cent). Better news for Ukraine is that Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country have scrapped plans to hold elections this autumn equating to a fall in tensions

UK retail - UK BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) Sep: -1.9% (prev -1.4%).  Not much pricing power there.  Meanwhile Tesco interim numbers are out later.

Asia – the Bank of Japan holds interest rates and continues its QQE policy. Talking about moderate growth domestically and internationally. Meanwhile, China's foreign exchange reserves shrank another $43bn last month, suggesting the central bank continues to deplete its firepower to support the renminbi. Total reserves are now $3.514tn, the lowest since July 2013.  

Still at least Chinese e-commerce is still growing fast: 



Rise of the yuan -
Chinese yuan accounted for only 2.8% of global payments in terms of value in August, while the top three in the ranking account for much more; the US dollar at 44.8%, euro at 27.2%, and pound at 8.5%. However, the amount of yuan-usage and the number of FX transactions shows a steady increase. Comparing with the year of 2012, the RMB ranked #12 with a share of only 0.84%.


 TPP trade – super graphic


Central banks and QE - as cited by Fast FT MOAR QE...but central banks are losing credibility too...

 

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