Monday, 5 October 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today...

A few macro and related thoughts today..

Portugal election – ‘Portugal's governing centre-right coalition has won the country's general election, which was widely seen as a referendum on four years of austerity. Socialist leader Antonio Costa admitted defeat and congratulated Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho. With almost all votes counted, the centre-right leads with about 37%, with the Socialists on just over 32%. However, Mr Passos Coelho said his coalition appears to have lost its absolute majority in parliament. He indicated that he was ready to talk to other parties in the next parliament to pursue the "necessary reforms" he wants to implement’ (BBC)

I liked this...showing Portugal is a little different.



Merkel – (1) on VW scandal - "dramatic event" but would not inflict lasting damage on Germany's reputation. The German chancellor said on Sunday that the car maker now needed to provide the "necessary transparency" (link here)  (2) migrant crisis/polling – 54% personal +ve polling lowest since late 2001 and migrant crisis being blamed  

Interesting combination. 

UK CFOs – Deloitte survey of UK CFOs showed uncertainty at a two-and-a-half year low.  Hardly optimistic...

Asia - China - World Bank Cuts China Growth Forecast: 2015: 6.9% (prev 7.1%), 2016: 6.7% (prev 7.0%)  Meanwhile Japanese services PMI fell slightly to 51.4.  They are citing the Olympics as a potential stimulus point (!)  Desperation...

Of course the Macau rhetorical 'support' news should be viewed as the third act of stimulus by the Chinese authorities in the last week...interesting. 

Big central bank week – including BoE rate decision, Fed minutes & more ECB musings (link here)

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