Monday, 26 October 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today...

A few macro and related thoughts today...

Migrants – Brussels summit ‘sought to cut through gnarled regional politics with a set of proposals to enforce rules on registration, rush border guards to pinch points and… pressure Greece (who are struggling above) into providing a minimum of 50,000 holding places for asylum seekers within 10 weeks’.  Agreement reached with Merkel suggesting that without one ‘it would be the end of the EU as we know it’ (link here). 

Brexit – the UK Prime Minister’s aides briefing the press: ‘Mr Cameron has become frustrated that some…have suggested that people could vote for Brexit in a referendum simply to strengthen Mr Cameron’s hand and to allow him to obtain a better deal…from the outset, the prime minister has been clear this will be a straightforward in/out choice.  Leave means leave’ (via today's FT)

China - The latest monetary policy action by China (Aa3 stable) is in line with our view that, as underlying growth slows, China's authorities are likely to respond with additional stimulus, Moody's Investors Service said.  Meanwhile Chinese stocks rose to a two-month high and bonds advanced after the central bank cut interest rates.  


Finally, a different sort of story in the Sunday Times yesterday: 


Turning to Japan only 25% say Abenomics will boost economy in a poll. Nearly 60% do not believe Abenomics will help (link here).      


Markets - indicating that it was a big week, these statistics from @PredictedMkts: 'the 2.9% fall in EUR/USD on Thursday and Friday last week was the biggest two day drop seen in the 1030 sessions since 1 November 2011.  Meanwhile the 8.2% gain seen in the Dow over the last 4 weeks is the biggest four week gain in the 200 weeks since 23 December 2011'

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