Monday, 12 October 2015

A few macro and related stories today...

Some macro thoughts today...

ECB QE - Meanwhile in another eyebrow raising central banking comment, Mario Draghi perceives that ECB policy has been a raging success...despite the rising inevitability of QE2 in Europe... (link here

Meanwhile, Unicredit in new research put the estimated size of the ECB’s QE2 at 30% of the first purchase program, which compares to 35% for the Fed’s QE2.  Sounds as if they are following the playbook…

Portugal – just when you thought that Europe's election cycle was starting to behave itself: ‘the opposition Socialists are exploring the possibility of forming a govt backed by anti-euro communists and the radical left after the country’s inconclusive general election placed the centre left party in the position of chief powerbroker’ (FT)

Asia – Shanghai Comp continues to extend gains following the comments from PBoC Deputy Governor Yi that stock market fluctuations are over and stimulus hopes (link here).  Best levels as I write on the Shanghai bourse since mid-August...



All of the above is probably been additionally helped by the reality that Chinese golden week look strong versus hopes – some amazing stats in this piece


Oil market - Oil demand will grow and non-OPEC supply is due to contract, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said, hoping to see a more balanced market in 2016 (link here). Big round number levels here.  



My view: stick with those higher yielding or high asset base stocks rather than buying crude futures...

Rise of white van man / ecommerce...


(via the FT)

...and generally auto penetration very GDP led:
  

Big earnings season week...'prices' still ahead of 'earnings'


No doubt lots of strong US dollar comments which is having an impact as shown below.  Still makes sense to me for the US dollar to fade a little from here which helps reduce some of the imbalances in the global economy in my view.  


And lots of US dollar mentions comments generally.  The pain is rising...

(h/t @E_Lefeuvre)

Also remember the impact of too much debt: ‘underperformance after’.  I would agree...there is nothing so destructive for equity value than debt...


Later - Who is going to win the Nobel prize for Economics? Very nice write-up here 

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