Wednesday, 23 September 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 23/09/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. Chinese PMIs - Caixin/Markit's manufacturing purchasing managers' index for August sank to 47 in September from 47.3 last month, and below economists' hopes for an improvement to 47.5. It was the lowest level since April 2008. Almost all sub-components deteriorated.  The survey report conclusion noted ‘patience may be needed for policies designed to promote stabilization to demonstrate their effectiveness'



2. European PMIs - I saw the preliminary eurozone manufacturing PMI data described quite glowingly in some places e.g.:

Eurozone economy marks 'best quarter in 4 years'


My thoughts on this are more akin to the conclusion of the Markit survey: growth remains below trend. 

3. US PMIs - and to complete the geographic set, the US manufacturing numbers were wonderfully described as being stuck in 'crawler gear'.  You can kind of see why...


So not the greatest set of manufacturing PMI data...

4. ...and hence you can see why the institutional investor bull/bear sentiment indicator is somewhat cautious at the moment.  Of course such caution could be perceived as bullish from a contrarian perspective - and certainly it is interesting today how markets have bounced back so strongly after earlier in the week volatility.  Even the '3 day rule' worked for Volkswagen.  I did take the opportunity this morning GMT to invest into the markets with a slug of cash akin to my late August commitment.  Effectively that is my second slug in.  


Nevertheless it has been a rather shabby month as @RyanDetrick noted when looking across multiple sectors in the US market: 



5.  Lots of talk about the Pope's travels in the Americas. Historically not the greatest sign for markets! 



Perhaps better news that the Q4 positive seasonals are nearly with us! 


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