Friday, 4 September 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 04/09/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. ECB summary – FT front page opines ‘Draghi opens door to more QE in face of global tremors’.  The lowered growth projections certainly feel consistent with this.



My fear would be that – like Japan historically – is that Europe is becoming too stimulus dependent and that structural reform (driven by govt’s and not the ECB) is taking a back seat. 

Also noteworthy today some pretty poor German construction and Eurozone retail PMI numbers:



2. So NFP day...the final number came slightly shy of expectations but previous numbers were revised up...but as via @lebullmarche:

RBC: the last 3x Aug “as reported” number was subsequently revised significantly higher by an avg of +83K with tight range of 71-92K

3. What else?  Well we know that QE is no panacea...


...but it is amazing how market performance related to it always comes in anticipation and not following. 

4. And as Fast FT noted it was ultimately a shabby week: 
  • The S&P 500's 1.5 per cent drop on Friday to 1,921.23, took the benchmark index's weekly decline to 3.4 per cent.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.3 per cent to 16,102.58.
  • The Nasdaq Composite slid 3 per cent to finish the week at 4,683.92.
 But look at the compressed sentiment levels.  A contrarian buying poing?


5. And finally...the next Financial Orbit Speaks will be out on Saturday.  In the meantime have a good weekend.  

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