Wednesday, 9 September 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today:

Global investing/interest rates – FT front page headline: ‘Fed urged to hold fire on rates or risk sparking emerging market “panic”.  Certainly a strong dollar is no help to the emerging markets but as Fed rate rises are potentially more muted going forward note the US currency has faded a little.  Also note what Warren Buffet said: ‘I wouldn't be aggressive if I were the Fed. Says he has never made a decision based on what Fed was going to do (CNBC)’

Asia – Nikkei-225 index finished up 6%+ for biggest one-day gain since November 10, 2008.  Did follow a near 3% fall yesterday.  Assisted by general musing about more stimulus in China driven by aspects like this:
  


Actually Chinese growth does not appear too bad on this measure…telling you there are some stock picking opportunities...


...especially given the growth of millennials in the country:


Global reserves - yes, they are falling in the emerging markets but in aggregate they are rather large versus their developed market peers


Back-to-school enthusiasm - This week has seen the biggest rally in the Dow in the opening session of a week since 28 November 2011, 197 weeks ago (via Predicted Markets).  US$40bn of M&A activity announced yesterday, US$3trn YTD best since 2007 (!) Combination of markets being oversold shorter-term and cheap money
  
But…in the VC world
 

Misery index - still musing which grouping the top or bottom half offer greater opportunity going forward.  It is a mixed up world...  


UK growth and the Queen – on the day the current Queen becomes the longest ever serving monarch some interesting statistics on economic growth.  Average growth in reign of Victoria the previous record holder was 2% pa, for Elizabeth II has been 2.5% pa…


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