Thursday, 3 September 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today...

ECB meet and press conference – the latest views from the ECB and Mr Draghi.  Solid/easy-to-read preview here focusing on landscape, signalling, forecasts, euro, Greece

Greece - “Greek Privatisation Agency Chief: Greek 2015 Privatisation Target To Be Missed, Says 2016 Target Is Still Realistic”. Not that surprised…

IMF views expressed overnight in paper prepared ahead of the G20 meet tomorrow (1) Asset Purchase Program Should Be Extended If No Improvement In Inflation; Fed Decisions Should Be Data-Dependent; (2) Advanced Economies Should Keep Monetary Stance Accommodative; (3) Global Economic Growth Remains Moderate, Downside Risks Have Risen, Especially For Emerging Economies.  Agree wholeheartedly with calls for more structural reform 

US Beige book - "modest to moderate" growth in labour demand in most districts and economic activity expanded across most regions and sectors from July to mid-August.

Canada – in recession.  Note the interesting inventories shift...

Asia – China/HK closed for today’s 70th anniversary of the end of WW2 conflict in the region and related parade.  In Japan services PMI at its highest point since October 2013.  Surprisingly good given lots of shabby data out of Japan recently.


HK market trading at a lower price:sales ratio than in ‘09 as per Evergreen GaveKal:


EV/ebitda  says ‘no’ (or at least stock pick carefully)

The S&P has caught up with the junk bond index:

(h/t @Callum_Thomas)

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