Tuesday, 22 September 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today...

A few macro and related thoughts today...

Future of Europe ‘2017 will be Europe’s year of reckoning. The current set of challenges the continent faces, however serious they are, pale in comparison to what may be lurking around the corner. This leaves less than two years to fix the current European mess before the pulling apart of Europe risks reaching a breaking point. The outcome will determine not only Angela Merkel’s legacy, but also Europe’s common and peaceful future’ (link here). 

Migrant crisis - EU interior ministers discuss Europe’s migrant population. Justice ministers will also be present in Brussels to discuss how and where to place migrants currently in Greece, Italy, and Hungary

Greek election – fallout: Fitch: Greek Election Broadly Credit Neutral, Risks Still High.  Fair summary (link here). 


Upcoming Spanish regional election – risks if Catalonia says “no”: ‘On Monday morning, the governor of the Bank of Spain, Luis María Linde, had said during a breakfast meeting in Madrid that capital controls in a newly independent Catalonia were a possibility, although he said his remarks were made in reference to a "highly unlikely future scenario". He also confirmed what others had said before him—including Angela Merkel —about a newly independent Catalonia immediately being left out of the European Union’ (link here). 

Asia – Asian Development Bank cut their growth outlook for ’15 for China to 6.8% from 7.2%, India from 7.8% to 7.4% and for the whole region from 6.3% to 5.8%.  Also I note rumours swirling that China will liberalise capital flows further…perhaps the latter having more effect than the former as China up for third day in a row, best in a month…



Look at the impact on rice/sake consumption in Japan of an ageing/falling population!



Xi visit to the US starts today (link here).  What concerns the US most about China?


How about general risks in the world?  No surprises what has become more of a perceived risk over recent weeks...

But how about lower/slower global trade?


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