Monday, 21 September 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today...

A few macro and related thoughts today...

Greece - With nearly all votes counted, Syriza had won more than 35% of the vote. That was short of a majority, but Syriza will form a coalition with the nationalist Independent Greeks. Conservative New Democracy won 28%.  An amazing victory given Syriza have done a complete u-turn on many of their original January policies…and now – of course – attention can go back to the economic crisis in the country (link here). Noteworthy low turnover though:


Migration - In a letter to European premiers this weekend, Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, said that leaders must face the “brutal reality” of the situation in border countries such as
Greece. Mr Tusk blamed a wave of tit-for-tat border closures and increased border checks within the passport-free Schengen zone on the fact that “we as Europeans are currently not able to manage our common external borders”(FT).  Hmm, still not good. 

Asia – confusing data out of China.  Whilst the headline MNI China Business Indicator was not dire (see below), the MNI China Business Indicator future expectations component fell 11.8 per cent to 52.1, the lowest reading since the survey began in 2007...

 
...meanwhile 'Perceptions of China economy more thoroughly divorced from facts than at any time in our nearly 5 years of surveys' as per the private (not state run) China Beige Book (link here): 


Emerging/developed markets - 

Underperformance of the former...


...certainly not helped by real rates deviating quite markedly from the developed world...

7
Linking some of the above charts...surely that fall in Chinese business future expectations nothing to do with a lot of debt...



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