Tuesday, 15 September 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today...

A few macro and related thoughts today...

Migrant crisis – ‘Efforts to agree a binding plan to share out 120,000 refugees fell apart after a minority of countries led by the Czech Republic and Hungary objected to a watered-down proposal.
After six hours of argument, member states failed to reach unanimous agreement on the plan, although a majority — including France and Germany — supported the scheme’ (FT) Meanwhile as this link shows more controls are being put in place...not a great epoch for European unity

Greek election - Tsipras rejected a coalition offer. The incumbent Greek leader said there would be either a “progressive or conservative government” after the 20th September general election, but not a mix. Evangelos Meimarakis, the leader of the conservative opposition, had offered to form a coalition whether his New Democracy party won the election or not. The two parties are neck-and-neck at the polls.  Despite this rhetoric I still feel a coalition is a possibility

Excellent cartoon (via @GreekAnalyst)

"What did you make of today's debate?"
- "A passport."

Asia – the BoJ keeps stimulus unchanged as the economy ‘has continued to recover moderately’ and the RBA in Australia said growth expected to be below average. Interestingly whilst the Bank of Japan slightly downgraded its exports hopes (to flattish), in Australia the RBA noted ‘The depreciation of the Australian dollar in response to the significant declines in key commodity prices was also expected to support growth, particularly through a larger contribution from net service exports’.  Junking your FX works for a while…and then it does not.

China - Meanwhile some form of infrastructure stimulus from China appears to be in the offing as Chinese authorities have seized up to 1 trillion yuan ($157 billion) from local governments who failed to spend their budget allocations: ‘The huge underspend, linked to officials' reluctance to splash out on big-ticket projects while authorities crackdown on corruption’   China still exhibiting highest level of 2 day volatility for a few weeks.

Golden age of corporate profitability – is it over? this link highlights challenges for the average corporation…

...but also solutions too:

Ahead of the Fed – Fitch add their voice citing potential volatility from a rate rise in the US 

Meanwhile are the Ems pulling back global QE?  More required!

(sourced from The Financial Times)

Meanwhile an interesting EM/DM chart (not sure I totally believe it given DM issues too):

(h/t @sobata416)

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