Wednesday, 2 September 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today...

Brexit – it will be ‘remain’ vs ‘leave’ rather than ‘yes’ vs ‘no’ as the UK EU referendum question will be ‘Should the UK remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’



Europe - Fitch Unlikely To Dramatically Revise Euro-Zone Country Ratings. Fitch: Euro-Zone Recovery Continues, Yet Growth Rate Low.  Last point the most important.  Only two of the European manufacturing PMIs showing positive trend and one of those was Greece which was in the 39s!

Greek elections – latest polls show a pretty clear two way fight…although a long tail too.  SYRIZA 27.5%, ΝD 26.5, G Dawn 6.5, Potami 5.5 + tail… Meanwhile, Syriza to scrap VAT on private schools if elected -which it enforced even after public outcry!  All the important stuff… (link here)

Meanwhile in Germany, backing up of thoughts on Greece


(h/t @fmirw)

Inflows:

(h/t @NorthmanTrader)


Oil: not such a good day for oil, US WTI crude futures settle at USD 45.41. /bbl (-7.7%) reversing Monday’s gains.  Fast FT has a good chart showing the impact on volatility in the space:



Asia: In the second quarter, the Australian economy grew 0.2% sequentially, below economists’ forecast of 0.4% and well below the 0.9% registered in the first quarter.  Ahead of the GDP data release, for the first time since 2009, the Australian dollar fell through 0.70 per U.S. dollar. 


GDI does not look good...


(h/t @CallamPickering)


Chart of the day however has to be this one via @sobata416:


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