Europe’s sovereign debt restructuring updates - German Gov’t Doubts 3rd Greek Deal Can Be Ready By 20 Aug (Bild). Meanwhile in the Ukrainian debt talks creditors happy with a 10% haircut, Ukraine dropped demands for a 40% one. 20-30% compromise? Still lots of scope for vol…
China – quieter day in the local market despite comments in the Securities Journal that ‘China's Monetary Policy Isn't Effective Enough, Fiscal Policy Should Have A Larger Role’. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs notes that China's stock market rescue has cost Beijing $145B so far, 1.6% of total market cap. More liquidity to come, RMB2T available. Would agree more stimulus likely.
Saudi - Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles (link here)
Saudi Central Bank: "It is becoming apparent that non-OPEC producers are not as responsive to low oil prices as had been thought"
Oil – 5 year future falls to level below that seen in 2008-9…kind of interesting given the differences in spot prices between then and now
US consumer - Why Isn’t The American Consumer More Optimistic? If previous optimistic levels are never reached, it may be a sign that the American consumer has moved into a more permanent pessimistic mindset. Fascinating link here
Watch out for – UK ‘super Thursday’ data from the Bank of England covering rate decision, minutes, economic forecasts and much more… Very good preview from today's FT:
September US Fed rise – now 50:50 as per market hopes
But is there a need? Lovely comparison with a couple of years ago by @bondvigilantes...
...and @SoberLook noted a real divergence between the services and manufacturing aspects of the US economy currently. Feels to me as if the strong US dollar should net net be a dulling factor for the speed of US rate tightening. Recall that low EPS growth chart I showed in Sunday's Stories we should be thinking about (link here)
Finally...this is surely about who relies more on whom... Absolutely fascinating!