Thursday, 20 August 2015

Some macro stories today

A few macro stories today...

ESM/Greece – Greece – just in time for an ECB repayment – to receive Euro13bn disbursement today. How much more money will follow until the (required in my view) debt restructuring debate starts?

US interest rates – implied interest rate probabilities now suggest US Fed rate rise 38% Sept probability, 67% by year end.  Noticeably lower than a day ago.  Nice write-up of views of many investment banks here 

Oil price move - apparently just the 12th worst day on record yesterday...

Big currency move - Kazakhstan’s tenge plunged a record 23%  after the country relinquished control of its exchange rate, becoming the latest emerging market to abandon efforts to prop up its currency before the U.S. raises interest rates. The country moved to a free-floating currency effective Thursday and will adopt an inflation-targeting monetary policy, Prime Minister Karim Massimov told a government meeting in Astana (Bloomberg).

*Stop press - 28% fall now*  I think Fast FT is correct when they said the various Kazakhstan mining interests will probably have a good day today...

China –  This article suggests that the key level is 3,500 for the Shanghai bourse.  You can see what maybe they mean:

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