Monday, 10 August 2015

Macro and related thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today...

Greece – FT front page noting that ‘Greece and its creditors are close to reaching an outline deal… Significant concessions…have encouraged other hawkish Eurozone members such as Finland to break with Berlin, which wants to hold out longer to squeeze more reforms from Athens’.  The ‘break with Berlin’ part interesting…think ultimately Germany will come along (‘German pragmatism’) but that does not mean they/others think it will work 

Just a quick reminder of Greek payment deadlines...



Talking about the EU - 'How the EU’s billions fund Brussels Beanos...Officials create cartoons that cost hundreds of thousands of pounds to teach children about how they are cutting out waste' (link here)

Worth a read...or a look.  

China – weekend data generally poor with weak export data (fell 8.3 per cent year-on-year, versus expectations of a 1.5 per cent drop. It was the biggest fall in four months) raising fears about GDP growth levels. Also super weak producer prices -5.4% indicate tough conditions for domestic companies.

And also no longer buying bonds...


...but don't assume that does not mean the market will not go up.  Bad data = the lure of stimulus: 


More generally a few real economy insights:

Japan - The consumer confidence index compiled by the Cabinet Office came in at 40.3, versus 41.7 in June. It is the second lowest reading so far this year (via @FastFT)

UK economy reality?
Boss of @oxfamGB tells @BBCBreakfast revenue from shops down due to people selling their 2nd hand goods in other ways (via @BBCBenThompson)

French economy reality?
*FRENCH 2-YEAR NOTE YIELDS DROP TO -0.21%, LOWEST SINCE APRIL ...back < below deposit rate (via @moved_average)

And finally...

(h/t @Hubon) 

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