Friday, 14 August 2015

Friday macro charts and thoughts

Some Friday macro charts and thoughts...

Greece – second FT front page headline of the week talking about German/Berlin ‘isolation’ this time as ‘debt relief calls gather momentum’.  I agree with that aspect.  Meanwhile watch out for the Greek Parliament votes to approve the latest bailout deal today.  Talk if voted through Germany may put it to their Parliament on Tuesday next week.

European GDP – watch out for Q2 GDP estimates.  French GDP just broke, flat in Q2, up 1% yoy.  Dull and below hopes. And the same for the German numbers too...

China - PBoC sets the CNY mid point at 6.3975 vs. last close. 6.3990 (Prev. mid point 6.4010); CNY reference rate was strengthened by 0.05%, first non-fall since Monday.  Markets calmer on this.  Think this big yuan focus should come off the front pages next week. Not the end of the currency wars though

(h/t @RANsquawk)

Other moves - WTI Crude fell to $41.91 yesterday, lowest since March 2009, seventh weekly drop = generational sequential move.  

Meanwhile close in Dow Friday below 17373 would mark the 2nd consecutive week of losses, and the lowest weekly close for at least 28 weeks as per Predicted Markets.  The Financial Times also showed the narrow range the US market has been trading in.  Hmm.  

It is going to be easier if the US dollar fades a bit as the overspills in terms of the emerging markets gets higher (see Malaysia, Turkey over the last 24 hours).  No surprises then that investment grade spreads are pushing out (and junk bonds seeing outflows):

More surprisingly though is that deal multiples (private equity exits) are still so firm...

(h/t @SoberLook)

A couple of final political tinged charts.  Fantastic cartoon on Donald Trump's US Republican Party Presidential candidate bid...


(h/t @ldaadler)

...and the potential winner of the UK opposition Labour leadership bid Jeremy Corbyn talking about ‘People’s QE’.  Sounds inflationary to me (so probably a good chance even if he wins the leadership bid chances of ever coming to power - possibly even fighting a General Election - is remote): 

(source: today's Financial Times)

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