Monday, 3 August 2015

A few macro thoughts and insights today...

A few macro thoughts and insights today...

Greece - Greek stock market to open today.  Supposedly ‘Local traders will be able to buy stocks, bonds, derivatives and warrants under certain conditions, according to the Finance Ministry. International investors won’t face any restrictions, as long as they were active in the markets before they were shuttered in June’ as per this report.  Greek ETF that has continued trading in the US -19% since suspension. Going to be a volatile opening...

European policy debates ‘French minister Sapin takes aim at German Schaüble over Grexit idea French finance minister criticises German counterpart for suggesting temporary Grexit’ (link here).  This sniping is going to go on until we get a debt restructuring in my view...   

Privatisations – UK leading the way (again) with story in today’s FT that the UK Chancellor want to peak the record (in adjusted £s) for privatisation receipts in a single year. Will we see a RBS placing announcement?
 

Why UK interest rates may go up quicker than US ones?


Asia ‘A number of readings on manufacturing activity around the region are released today, but it's China's that has drawn the most attention. The final reading of Caixin/Markit's purchasing managers' index showed China's manufacturing sector contracted in July by more than previously thought, and at the sharpest pace since August 2012’ (Fast FT).  Shanghai market at the time of writing -2.5% on that.
 
Why many Chinese stocks are still suspended?

(h/t @shuli_ren)

Other Asian manufacturing numbers - 

Indian manu PMI rises from 51.3 in June to 52.7

Russia's manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate in July, with the index stuck under the 50 level that divides expansion and contraction. July's level was 48.3.

Indonesian manufacturing PMI down from 47.8 in June to 47.3 in July.  Comment: ‘Employment falls at fastest pace in survey history amid sustained drop in new work’  

Commodities – you know it is a bear market when: WTI has fallen for 7 consecutive weeks (-22.0%). Sequence of weekly falls has not extended to 8 since at least April 1990.

Gold has fallen for 6 consecutive weeks (-8.7%). Sequence of weekly falls last extended to 7 weeks way back in June 1999 (both via @PredictedMkts).  Overdone though/overly pessimistic sentiment?

Good commodity chart...some are still annualising up!
 And finally, excellent chart on US corporate versus emerging market cap

(h/t @ldaalder

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