Monday, 17 August 2015

A few macro and related thoughts and charts today

A few macro and related thoughts and charts today...

Greece/Germany – Mrs Merkel cancels trips to Italy, Brazil in order to maximise her time in Berlin to ensure on Wednesday the country’s parliament votes through the Greek bailout proposals.  Weekend press reports show split in German thinking although expectation is that the vote will go through. 

Meanwhile chat in the German press of a very long duration Greek restructuring potentially...

Eurogroup Mulls Avg 60-Yr Bond Maturity For Greece – Handelsblatt
(h/t @LiveSquawk)

You know what that reminds me of?


Eurozone lack of confidence -
According to this report, barely a quarter of the respondents in a Bloomberg survey see the Eurozone’s outlook improving in the short term. That’s the lowest level since the European Central Bank started QE.  Not tood. 

China - PBOC Fixes Yuan Reference Rate At 6.3969 (prev 6.3975) i.e. very little move. Now back more to other factors in China such as microeconomic reform, economic growth levels and related where matters are not quite as dire as some headlines would have it...


(h/t @acemaxx)

Japan - not a headline impressive set of Japanese economic growth and related numbers even though technically they were ahead of hopes...

Japan GDP Annualised SA (QoQ) (Q2, P): -1.6% (exp -1.8% prev rev 4.5%)
Japan GDP Nominal SA (QoQ) (Q2, P): 0.0% (exp 0.1% prev rev 2.2%)
Japan EcoMin Amari: Q2 Contraction Owing To Bad Weather, Taxes On Mini Vehicles & Soft China/US Exports


Hard not to feel that this cartoon via @RANsquawk sums it up beautifully:



Global debt graphic - far too much of this in the world...


(h/t @ldaalder) 

Finally a couple of commodity related graphics.  Did you see at least one (and actually in reality am guessing quite a few) billionaire now has made gold their largest position?



Meanwhile always interesting to inflation adjust the oil price to help put things a bit more coherently into context: 


(h/t @divyachowdhury)

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