Thursday, 2 July 2015

Some macro and related insights today

Due to the American 4th of July celebrations occurring on a Saturday a truncated US stock market week means the NFPs are today - something different from the ongoing Greek debate I guess...still starting with the Hellenic Republic!

Greece – the updated views of the Greek leadership:  

‘Come Monday, the Greek government will be at the negotiating table after the #referendum, w/better terms for the Greek people’ – Tspiras. 

‘Our goal is a deal on Monday’ – Varoufakis 


Greece #2 – despite rumours yesterday looks as if referendum on now with IMF Chief Lagarde noting ‘Unclear Where Greek Negotiations Stand…Hopes Greek Referendum Provides More Clarity, Certainty About Situation’.  

I note recent polls observes that 74% of Greeks want to stay in the euro whatever it means/takes – feels more important than a simple ‘yes/no’ vote.

Greece #3 – meanwhile I read “IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis different than leaked European one. Source says it deems Greek debt is not sustainable under any scenario” (via the Greek press based in the US). Feels correct to me – need debt restructuring for any sustainable deal.

A number of good Europe charts.  I posted this on the Europe divergence from the front page of the Financial Times and it caused a bit of excitement on Twitter...


For slightly different but akin takes I liked this from the WSJ which noted the differential on Eurozone versus non Eurozone.  

Meanwhile @ kindly shared this which observes the strong real incomes 2003-2007 performance of the Greek economy (the faster they rise, the faster they fall)...and then there is Italy!  Fascinating graphic:



China – Shanghai index currently below key 4k level.  Meanwhile perhaps because of headlines like ‘Chinese investors blame share collapse on state’ margin requirements are eased.  Check out 130% of limits are no longer a worry at this link 

Meanwhile I liked this...


...not long to go now until those 3,500 odd level: 




Macau bounce - Macau government said China is to relax visa rules for its citizens, allowing them to stay seven days in Macau rather than five. The announcement came out late Tuesday but Hong Kong markets were closed for holiday yesterday and despite the volatility in China it bounced the sector's shares (up 8%+).  Well that was quick following yesterday's comment (link here)

A final couple of charts - 

No surprises there that earnings are central to stock price 'crashes':


UK house price growth moderates a bit (chart via @moved_average).  Still hugely valued versus underlying earnings...


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