Friday, 10 July 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 10/07/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. Greece – new reform proposal submitted to the EU authorities.  As one observer noted: ‘It's pretty darn close to the one 61% of Greeks voted "OXI" against’.  I note that there is also still little about debt restructuring which worries me regarding ultimate sustainability...which has been a focus for much of the day.

You can read the new proposal here

My view: you have to get a debt restructuring agreement otherwise it is not a full deal.  And - of course - the more you prevaricate the worse the Greek economy gets.

2. The two day big bounceback in China came down to two quotes in my view:

This observation via Fast FT that:

Beijing has engineered a rally with forced buying, mass suspensions and prohibited selling. The result: everyone wins

That this remains an unusual market is reflected by this observation via @HaidiLunCNA

Just been told my regular BoCom analyst is gagged because his view on A-shares is "too bearish." One of the first to call the bubble. Sigh.

3. Macroeconomic musings at the moment are dominated by China and Greece and the update to global growth issued by the IMF yesterday could easily be missed despite some fascinating forecast evolutions as shown below including a quite large downgrade to US, Japanese and various emerging market growth hopes BUT a Russian growth increase (still FY15 growth contraction however) and both Italy/Spain upgraded too.  Much to think about...so I found the best quotes from the IMF press conference on the update and collated them here.


4. Watch out later for the new edition of Financial Orbit Speaks which will discuss all of the above and much more.  Distribution on Saturday UK time...

(for all the recent Financial Orbit Speaks please see the tab at the top of the page). 

5. And finally...have a good weekend.  

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