Wednesday, 8 July 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 08/07/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. An interesting day concerning Greece with ESM 'kick the can down the road' proposals and a pretty volatile performance by Tspiras in the EU Parliament.  Clearly the situation is getting uglier now with Sunday a new ultimatum and the EU talking more explicitly about offering tougher terms than 2 weeks ago.  The Economist (here) has interpreted this as ‘Grexit seems imminent’

Europe is still 'all in' however with some more exposed recently than others as this excellent graphic from today's Financial Times showed:


2. I do wonder however if we are moving towards a more leftfield outcome. Not only is Christine Lagarde of the IMF continuing to talk about restructuring in a growing policy chasm with the EU authorities but additionally...

...as noted in this article is Tsipras between a rock and a hard place due to unexpected success? “Greek premier Alexis Tsipras never expected to win Sunday's referendum on EMU bail-out terms, let alone to preside over a blazing national revolt against foreign control. He called the snap vote with the expectation - and intention - of losing it. The plan was to put up a good fight, accept honourable defeat, and hand over the keys of the Maximos Mansion, leaving it to others to implement the June 25 "ultimatum" and suffer the opprobrium” 


3. Hard to know what more to say about China with continued high volatility and (depending on how you count it) 10-20% only of Chinese stocks properly trading.  Hmmm.  And that margin continues to linger...

4. This outage on the NYSE is very unusual...as one of my correspondents noted:

United Airlines, Wall Street Journal, NY Stock Exchange, all 
crashed today "for technical reasons" within short period.

Coincidence? 

Hackers? 

"Keep Cool and Carry On." 

As we were told in 1941 Britain. 

Still good advice in 2015.

I accept neither explanation until we know more.

5. Hello earnings season...not the greatest start at first glance.  A long way to go! 

Alcoa (Q2 15): Adj EPS $0.19 (est $0.23), Revenue $5.90bn (est $5.80bn)

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