Friday, 10 July 2015

A few macro stories and interesting charts today

A few macro stories and interesting charts today...

Greece – new reform proposal submitted to the EU authorities.  As one observer noted: ‘It's pretty darn close to the one 61% of Greeks voted "OXI" against’.  I note that there is also still little about debt restructuring which worries me regarding ultimate sustainability (and hence why the European futures may be a bit too optimistic this morning)… You can read the new proposal here

Greece timetable – 
(1) sent proposals to Brussels on Thursday night
(2) Greek Parliament will vote on them on Friday;
(3) The institutions will study the Greek proposals on Friday, present a report to the Euro Working Group, which is due to meet on Saturday morning in Brussels, before it makes its recommendation to the Eurogroup finance ministers;
(4) Eurozone finance ministers meet on Saturday at 4pm local; (5) EU leaders' summit on Sunday

How votes may line up:



Greece hurry up – time though is of the essence as nicely summarised here: ‘Goldman source tells me analysts think Greek bank closures are reducing annual GDP growth by 1% every week they stay closed’

Europe hope – after a volatile recent period I noted the hope expressed by the European futures this morning. Others will point to the fact that if you expend the money supply enough then earnings will follow…

(h/t @eurofaultlines)

...additionally we have European Q2 earnings starting next week.  Assisted by the lagged effects of the weaker euro Q2/FY15e hopes have seen upgrades over the last three months - now let's see what the earnings season reality impact is going to be: 

My view on Europe: after the likely bounce this morning, shifting back to 'glass half empty' conditions - especially with no debt restructuring anticipated in the documents I have seen...

As expressed by the DAX 10k (Grexit/requisite fears) remains more likely than 12k (above earnings come in and expectation of double digit FY16e earnings growth...)



China – currently local market up strongly big enough for the best back-to-back gain in seven years. Only 49% of Chinese stocks are halted today; down from 58% halted yesterday but lots are limit up and hence the amount of tradeable stocks in the Chinese market is very thin (200 names out of maybe 2,800 stocks?)

I agree though with the observation via Fast FT that:

Beijing has engineered a rally with forced buying, mass suspensions and prohibited selling. The result: everyone wins

That this remains an unusual market is reflected by this observation via @HaidiLunCNA

Just been told my regular BoCom analyst is gagged because his view on A-shares is "too bearish." One of the first to call the bubble. Sigh.


So back to just under 4k index points on the Shanghai Composite.  The only reality is that volatility will remain but picking through that maybe some individual stock opportunities come to the fore - more on this in the upcoming earnings season appraisal over the next six weeks or so.  


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