Tuesday, 7 July 2015

A few macro and related thoughts/charts today

A few thoughts today...

Greece – big Tuesday meeting of all the European finance ministers and heads of state…time for some movement from the creditors?  I guess you have to ask the 'Banque de Merkel'...


Greece #2 – ELA rolled yesterday evening but with tighter conditions (Haircut on ELA securities increased by about 10%). ECB’s Nowotny said that “Greek Bank’s Cash Will Probably Last The Week”.  Time for a deal…

Signalling from 2 year Greek bond at a 50% yield = 50% haircut risk?!


Greece #3 – the debate about the impact if the Greeks print their own money.  Perhaps one that gets more relevance IF today's/the next week or so's talks break down...


Global markets – interesting to see which ones are ‘oversold’ as per this measure…not just China but lots of Europe too (sourced from here)



China – more volatility and Shanghai index at lowest since March. Over 200 Chinese Firms Suspend Share Trading Today (Sec Daily)

Meanwhile Chinese companies listed in the US are…coming home.  Interesting timing! 


Australia – Oz Central Bank keeps rates at 2% but calls for further FX falls (who doesn't want a weaker FX at the moment!?): “Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices”

Oil – worthwhile watching today as yesterday very poor: ‘Brent crude, the international oil standard, slid 6.3 per cent to $56.54 while West Texas Intermediate, its US counterpart, declined 7.7 per cent to $52.53. The slide was the worst since February and took both Brent and WTI into negative territory for the year’ (Fast FT)



Puerto Rico bonds. Liked this– fabulous tag line…


 (h/t @DavidTaggart)


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