Tuesday, 28 July 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today:

Markets - DAX futures have fallen for 5 days in a row, dropping 6.0%. Run has extended to 6 days once in the last 927 sessions.  Meanwhile the Dow has fallen for 5 days in a row (-3.6%). Sequence of falls has extended to 6 days only once since 21st August 2013 (both via @PredictedMkts).  Amazing that just a week ago were talking about successive 7-9 days of gains...

Asia performance Q3 to date –

China – very volatile with Shanghai benchmark index down over 4% at opening but currently down c. 2% assisted no doubt by biggest liquidity injection in 5 months. This is a good review of Chinese stimulus policy vs ‘Western’ QE: “The more proactive Chinese approach is the policy equivalent of attempting to catch a falling knife - arresting a market in free-fall” 

US policy – FOMC two day meeting starts today. Meanwhile 'Investors Think China Tumult Will Cause Fed to Delay Liftoff — Goldman'.  Link here.  

Oil – Brent back in a bear market. The global oil market surplus is the biggest since 1998, when prices slumped below $10 a barrel, according to brokerage PVM Oil Associates.  This graphic below from 

Junk bonds - clear direction in my view...limited fixed income value.  

Nuclear weapons – who holds them?!

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