Monday, 27 July 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today...

Greece – getting a little messy again with slight delays in ‘the institutions’ getting active in Athens (‘logistical difficulties’) and a FT story talking about Greek govt not realising that before disbursement of any bail-out monies there needs to be further reform passing by the Parliament, however ‘implementation fatigue’ in Athens… Chat that Greek stock market may open Tuesday and this report notes still a wide range of scenarios for the Greek banks 


(h/t @RANsquawk) 

Talking about creditors versus debtors I think we are all going to looking at this chart re Ukraine over the next few weeks


UK politics - EU referendum 'within a year': David Cameron fast-tracks vote on Britain's membership of European Union to June 2016 as per this report. Meanwhile opposition Labour leadership contender Jeremy Corbyn says 'we can learn a great deal from Karl Marx' and a second referendum on Scottish independence is 'inevitable', says Alex Salmond of the SNP

Meanwhile as for UK confidence levels, overtaken the global average for the first time in 9 years according to a report in today's Financial Times:



Asian markets – in the earlier session generally down as data showing industrial profits in China fell 0.3 per cent in June from a year earlier, and from a 0.6 per cent gain in the 12 months to May 31.  Whilst Moody’s notes that China's Core Shadow Banking Growth Falls Below Nominal GDP Growth...


(h/t @S_Rabinovitch) 

...however sharper falls in the Shanghai Composite (down 5%+) as the session neared its close...  The volatility is not over...


(h/t @fion_li)

Interesting report here on fewer China visitors to HK and impact this has had: 



Commodity impact – more stable GDP growth if you are an importer not exporter of commodities.  From a development economics perspective I would agree with this...too much resource-rich emerging markets 'waste' their resource...


Oil markets - Something to watch this week: WTI has fallen for 6 weeks in a row (-19.9%). Sequence of weekly falls has extended to 7 weeks only twice since April 1990 (via PredictedMkts)

Australia – mortgage cost spread vs cash rate.  And in some parts of the country they still have a housing boom (Sydney etc.).  Hmmm. 



(h/t @linzcom, @johnnyshap)

And finally, big week for US data.  Will this trade weighted US dollar level overhang decision-making/commentary?  In my view US rates are not going up as fast as the average analyst thinks...




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