Greece – getting a little messy again with slight delays in ‘the institutions’ getting active in Athens (‘logistical difficulties’) and a FT story talking about Greek govt not realising that before disbursement of any bail-out monies there needs to be further reform passing by the Parliament, however ‘implementation fatigue’ in Athens… Chat that Greek stock market may open Tuesday and this report notes still a wide range of scenarios for the Greek banks
Talking about creditors versus debtors I think we are all going to looking at this chart re Ukraine over the next few weeks
UK politics - EU referendum 'within a year': David Cameron fast-tracks vote on Britain's membership of European Union to June 2016 as per this report. Meanwhile opposition Labour leadership contender Jeremy Corbyn says 'we can learn a great deal from Karl Marx' and a second referendum on Scottish independence is 'inevitable', says Alex Salmond of the SNP
Meanwhile as for UK confidence levels, overtaken the global average for the first time in 9 years according to a report in today's Financial Times:
Asian markets – in the earlier session generally down as data showing industrial profits in China fell 0.3 per cent in June from a year earlier, and from a 0.6 per cent gain in the 12 months to May 31. Whilst Moody’s notes that China's Core Shadow Banking Growth Falls Below Nominal GDP Growth...
...however sharper falls in the Shanghai Composite (down 5%+) as the session neared its close... The volatility is not over...
Interesting report here on fewer China visitors to HK and impact this has had:
Commodity impact – more stable GDP growth if you are an importer not exporter of commodities. From a development economics perspective I would agree with this...too much resource-rich emerging markets 'waste' their resource...
Oil markets - Something to watch this week: WTI has fallen for 6 weeks in a row (-19.9%). Sequence of weekly falls has extended to 7 weeks only twice since April 1990 (via PredictedMkts)
Australia – mortgage cost spread vs cash rate. And in some parts of the country they still have a housing boom (Sydney etc.). Hmmm.
(h/t @linzcom, @johnnyshap)
And finally, big week for US data. Will this trade weighted US dollar level overhang decision-making/commentary? In my view US rates are not going up as fast as the average analyst thinks...