Tuesday, 14 July 2015

A few macro and related stories today

A few macro and related stories today...

Greece – more details of the deal yesterday coming out e.g. “They crucified Tsipras in there,” a senior eurozone official who had attended the summit remarked.  Meanwhile “Greece is being treated like a hostile occupied state…A new deal for Athens is the worst of all worlds and solves nothing” says this article in the UK press. I mused about not dis-similar sentiments in my Yahoo Finance Contributors column yesterday (link here).  



But more Germans want the Greeks to stay!



Greece #2 – Tsipras now back in Greece to sell the deal/try to get it through Parliament tomorrow.  Facing a party revolt? Recent headlines suggest a limited one but the vote will go through. Nevertheless - and despite this - chat in the German press (Bild) that ‘TSIPRAS GOVT WEIGHS RESIGNING AFTER WED PARLIAMENT VOTE’. I note also that Ladbrokes has Tsipras odds-on (8/11) to leave this year - Grexit odds hit all time low (1/12)

I didn’t realise there needs to be another vote next Wednesday


Greece #3 - IMF say Greece missed the latest payment; request for extension to be reviewed by the board (am sure they will wait for Wednesday).  Meanwhile, ECB may review Greece bank ELA again on Thursday, says CNBC's Liesman.  All requires a positive Parliamentary vote tomorrow. 

Much more on Greece no doubt as the day progresses...


China – so far a relatively quieter (if slightly negative) day on the Shanghai bourse. The percentage of halted companies today fell to 27 per cent, according to Bloomberg.  Strong money supply supply/new yuan loan growth suggests that actions to stimulate Chinese economy continuing/having an impact (data below via Fast FT): 

China Money Supply M2 (YoY) June: 11.8% (est. 11.0%, prev. 10.8%)

Total financing was Rmb1.86tn ($300bn) last month, a third higher than forecasts at Rmb1.40tn and up from Rmb1.22tn in May.

New yuan loans were Rmb1.27tn, up from Rmb900bn, suggesting much of pick-up came through normal banking channels rather than the shadow sector.

China – recent market slide charts (link here)

Japan – real wage chart: dull/ugly.  QE4ever in Japan in my view...


Ukraine – not happy as per this Financial Times story re the level of support given to Greece…but they are not part of the Eurozone…


Maths! Not necessarily a good trend in my view...



(h/t @NinjaEconomics) 

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