Friday, 3 July 2015

A few macro and related stories today

A few macro and related stories today...

Welcome to the 'Greferendum' long weekend...


Some fascinating stories around on the Hellenic Republic: 

A ‘huge financial hole’ says the IMF and hence debt relief required  . 


Banks already have failed’ says Fitch.  Would agree debt relief (with substantial reforms) absolutely required. 

It was the latest from Mr Varoufakis’ blog who actually pulled all of this together the best though with a posting titled...

'IMF backs (ever so peculiarly) the SYRIZA government’s debt assessment'

...and which concluded: 

Never before has a veritable institution advocated policies that clashed so mercilessly with its own research.
Never before has the IMF agreed, on economic analysis, with a government it sought to devastate.


Whilst the Google searches still favour the 'No's'...


(h/t @Callum_Thomas)

...the opinion polls show a narrow lead for the 'yes's': 

GREECE OPINION POLL ON BAILOUT REFERENDUM SHOWS YES VOTE 44.8 PCT, NO VOTE 43.4 PCT - ETHNOS NEWSPAPER despite best efforts of the Greek PM who tweeted last night: ‘We will not accept Mr. Schäuble's view that the euro stands for poverty, austerity & social catastrophe. #Greece #Greferendum #OXI’.  Momentum surely with the ‘yes’ campaign.


Finally on Greece...no translation needed really (but if you are wondering: 'give me the money or I shoot!'): 


With the US closed today the other big story is China where the index has not yet closed but it is clearly going to be a poor week:


So Chinese market volatility continues and almost as inevitably an investigation started into ‘market manipulators’ Shanghai bourse was down 7% at one point, now down 4%+...

What else is out?

Asia services PMIs - China HSBC Services PMI (Jun): 51.8 (prev 53.5) and survey provider calls for more stimulus.  Meanwhile Indian services PMI falls <50 for the first time in 14 months.

Fascinating UK chart in today's Financial Times showing economy balance problems


 Loser growth countries – surely some risk Greece goes down this list


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