Thursday, 11 June 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 10/06/15 AND 11/06/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 48 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

Travelling has slightly disrupted the last couple of days output, so here is a super wrap covering a couple of days.  Back to normal from tomorrow (Friday).  As always though travel broadens the mind...

1. I write on ShareProphets about HSBC where I still see opportunity (link here)...

2. ...and also about government placings specifically RBS and Royal Mail (link here)

3. Bonds - New ‘bond king’ Gundlach says that chances of a Fed rate rise by end year ‘less than 50%’ on weak earnings growth as per this link.

As many of you may recall I heard Mr Gundlach speak at the Strategic Investment Conference 2015 last month. Interesting to recall his views back then on slightly broader bond market issues: 

Bonds - Jeffrey Gundlach mused over whether c. 2019 is a big high yield bond storm due to mass rollover then, rising cov-lite positioning and that '100% of the time' high yield underperforms when rates go up.  

On the US dollar Jeffery Gundlach said that 'currency trends usually last 10 years' and that tactically on the DXY ($ trade weight) he was looking for the 93 level to go long/longer. 

Mistakes: Jeffery Gundlach noted mentioned that Australia, South Korea, Sweden and Norway among others erroneously raised rates a few years back only to reduce them substantially more recently.

Meanwhile I found this interesting:

Interesting US state-by-state growth chart.  I wonder how this will look for FY15 given that many of the better areas in FY14 were oil producing ones...


4. China - bunch of economic data out.  No shocker but tells you that further rate cuts (plus microeconomic tinkering of course) remains the reality:


5. And finally...Ukraine creditors talking about a 40% haircut fear (about time) and as for Greece:

IMF is expected to return to Brussels once 's gov't is ready to engage in serious talks, official says

Much more on these two stories over the next few weeks...

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