Friday, 19 June 2015

A few macro thoughts and headlines

Just time for a few macro thoughts and headlines today...

Greece – break up of talks, to reconvene next Monday.  Best comment post the meeting? IMF Lagarde commenting on state of negotiations says not enough dialogue between "adults" in the room.  Also talk ECB is believed to be holding an emergency meeting on Greek banks re ELA on Friday (emergency funds?).  Well the bank deposit positioning does look shaky as this Bloomberg chart shows: 


Here is the best graphic representation of the talks though via @RANsquawk: 


Greece #2 - Mr Varoufakis has been blogging again and says why the Greeks have moved a lot (an effectively calls for a bond restructuring).  Well worth a read.  

China – Shanghai earlier today into formal correction mode 10% off the recent highs.  Why? "stock regulator CSRC planning company margin trading risk management ".  Elsewhere More Than 10 Banks In Shenzhen Raise Mortgage Rates (Bus. News).  Hmm, no surprises there is a bit of an index rollover occurring to me...


Note too in the chart above the fading volumes...

But it is no disaster, otherwise Hong Kong would be sharply down today but as I write it is up, although looking at the chart any further break below the 27k level opens up a fall to 25k...



Japan – BoJ keeps policy unchanged bank said the economy "has continued to recover moderately,".  Still Nikkei down for third week in a row.  Still cautious on Japan here believing it is too prone to the need for a falling yen.  

A couple of final charts: 

Those hard working Germans from the front page of The Financial Times…(ahem):



Better news though in terms of very long term homicide rates.  


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